Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9F 0x9f43…1276 crypto 11 markets active 6h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+5%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$1
crypto 37% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -39.9% -45.6% 50% 50% -21.5%
≤30d 8 +2.3% -7.4% 62% 62% -1.7%
≤90d 8 +2.3% -7.4% 62% 62% -1.7%
all 8 +2.3% -7.4% 62% 62% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 62% -1.7%
10% -16.3% 38% -11.1%
15% -24.4% 38% -19.7%
20% -31.8% 38% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage19d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.28 · official $6.28 (match) · 20 history records