Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9F 0x9f49…d388 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$204 (-4%) realized −$204 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$516
politics 20% +$10
crypto 19% +$313
sports 4% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +16.4% +5.3% 62% 59% -11.6%
≤30d 29 +16.4% +5.3% 62% 59% -11.6%
≤90d 29 +16.4% +5.3% 62% 59% -11.6%
all 29 +16.4% +5.3% 62% 59% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.3% 59% -11.6%
10% -4.8% 59% -20.0%
15% -14.0% 52% -27.8%
20% -22.4% 38% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$133 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$204
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage5d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$34 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$104 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $129 −$125 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $706 +$233 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $48 +$43 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$21 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$81 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $78 +$59 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$71 +69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $254 −$250 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $202 +$69 +34%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $543 −$337 -62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $570 −$570 -100%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 25 $284 −$5 -2%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 25 $803 +$15 +2%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $506 +$190 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $494 +$177 +36%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $80 +$40 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 94¢ $939 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $47 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $137 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records