Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:33:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9F 0x9f4a…1ae0 crypto 762 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 149d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,352 (-1%) realized −$1,352 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate47%395W / 452L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 149d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$423
other 2% −$800
sports 1% −$1,142
tech 1% +$7
economics 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -82.1% -83.8% 11% 6% -61.4%
≤30d 114 -82.1% -83.8% 11% 6% -61.4%
≤90d 227 -64.2% -67.6% 31% 3% -20.1%
all 847 -31.7% -38.2% 47% 4% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.2% 4% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -44.1% 3% -20.0%
15% -49.5% 3% -27.7%
20% -54.5% 2% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$21 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$1,352
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses395 / 452
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)847 / 762
History coverage149d ⚠
Avg bet$234
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 847 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on June 20? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+225%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 422 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 14? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 6? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 5? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 25? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 1? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 7? Jun 18 $71 −$84 -119%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 21? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 6? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 4? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 8? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 1? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 1 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 28? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 7? Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 8? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on January 15? Jun 18 $6 −$34 -551%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 2? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 11? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 12 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 8? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 3? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 16 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 1? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 16? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 1? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 4? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 7? Jun 18 $58 −$14 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 19? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -105%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 20? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 7? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 17 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 2 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 19 Jun 18 $192 −$200 -104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 13? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 6? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 1? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 10 Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 29? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 1 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 12? Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 16 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 16 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 31? Jun 18 $331 −$300 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on January 17? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 16? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 13 Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 5? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 9? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 49¢ $19 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $107 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $92 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $53 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $49 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $16 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $11 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 94¢ $29 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 94¢ $20 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $11 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $15 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $73 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 0¢ $0 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 0¢ $0 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 0¢ $1 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $28 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $85 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 85¢ $171 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 24h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $115 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $176 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $176 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $72 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $72 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $145 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $145 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $143 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.11 · official $63.11 (match) · 3500 history records