Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:47:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f4a…5ff8 crypto 261 markets active 6h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%143W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day33.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$45
14 days−$57
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$50
sports 1% −$1
other 1% −$3
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 130 -13.3% -21.5% 55% 46% -17.3%
≤30d 256 -5.8% -14.8% 56% 48% -16.2%
≤90d 256 -5.8% -14.8% 56% 48% -16.2%
all 256 -5.8% -14.8% 56% 48% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 48% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 39% -24.2%
15% -30.4% 33% -31.5%
20% -37.2% 26% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses143 / 113
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)256 / 261
History coverage12d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day33.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +7%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $7 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 AND Egyp BUY 4¢ $1 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 1¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 17h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 16¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $11 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.26 · official $3.20 · 490 history records