Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:33:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9F 0x9f4b…f9bf other 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 428d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,685 (+17%) realized +$3,774 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%42W / 71L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$6,695now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$36
14 days−$21
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$2,392
politics 25% +$505
sports 18% +$1,069
world 6% +$432
tech 3% −$183
culture 2% −$171
weather 2% −$278
crypto 1% −$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -54.8% -59.1% 20% 20% -40.4%
≤30d 15 -60.2% -64.0% 20% 20% -25.5%
≤90d 33 +6.9% -3.3% 30% 30% +44.1%
all 113 +18.2% +6.9% 37% 35% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.9% 35% +12.9%
10% -3.3% 30% +2.1%
15% -12.7% 29% -7.8%
20% -21.2% 24% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$65 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

428d coverage
Net worth$6,695
Realized+$3,774
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses42 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions25
Markets (closed)113 / 138
History coverage428d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 56¢ $1,127 $1,411 +$284 (+25%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 37¢ 88¢ $300 $709 +$409 (+136%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 62¢ 60¢ $600 $583 −$17 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 85¢ $500 $471 −$29 (-6%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $500 $439 −$61 (-12%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 67¢ 69¢ $400 $413 +$13 (+3%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 60¢ 61¢ $400 $404 +$4 (+1%)
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? No 97¢ 94¢ $400 $389 −$11 (-3%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $326 $318 −$8 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $400 $313 −$87 (-22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $240 $261 +$21 (+9%)
Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Yes 65¢ 56¢ $200 $173 −$27 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $200 $168 −$32 (-16%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 84¢ 81¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 84¢ 88¢ $126 $133 +$6 (+5%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 36¢ 36¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%? No 77¢ 80¢ $70 $73 +$3 (+4%)
Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? No 87¢ 54¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 26? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+4%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%? Yes 19¢ 29¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 35% and 39.9%? Yes 21¢ 9¢ $30 $13 −$17 (-58%)
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 40% and 44.9%? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-71%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $400 $3 −$397 (-99%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Yes 67¢ 1¢ $100 $2 −$98 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 25? Jun 26 $31 +$39 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $50 +$56 +113%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $277 +$159 +57%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $42 −$40 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 04 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $102 +$298 +291%
Exact Score: CA River Plate 1 - 2 CA Belgrano? May 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: CA River Plate 0 - 2 CA Belgrano? May 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 19 $1,724 +$1,437 +83%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in April 2026 be between 2.8% and 3 May 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $72 −$70 -98%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $123 −$120 -98%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $160 +$454 +284%
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Barcelona SC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 3.4% and 3 Apr 14 $40 +$401 +1003%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 13 $1,343 +$497 +37%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 3.1% and 3 Apr 08 $86 −$86 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $40 +$45 +114%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CA Boca Juniors: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-04-02? Apr 03 $50 +$172 +344%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-03-22? Mar 24 $100 +$61 +61%
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-03-23? Mar 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will CA Central Córdoba win on 2026-03-23? Mar 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Instituto AC Córdoba win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 23? Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 22? Mar 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on March 22? Mar 22 $30 −$19 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 23? Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 22? Mar 22 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 24? Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on March 23? Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on March 23? Mar 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or below on March Mar 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs OXEN (+1.5) Mar 16 $9 +$5 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 16 $282 +$148 +52%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner Mar 16 $780 +$110 +14%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South Group Stage Mar 16 $1,457 +$240 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina make Peter Thiel a citizen by December 31? BUY No 87¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 26? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 26? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 7h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 25? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 30h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 25? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 30h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $100 6d
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $300 8d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $31 9d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 9d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 9d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 84¢ $127 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $201 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $20 9d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $51 10d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 92¢ $175 12d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 4¢ $21 13d
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 20¢ $103 17d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 34¢ $103 18d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 34¢ $205 18d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 42¢ $307 20d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $21 21d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $62 21d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY No 60¢ $406 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,695.10 · official $6,695.46 (match) · 413 history records