Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:02:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f4b…3963 sports 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$699 (-4%) realized −$671 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%41W / 66L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$225est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$294
14 days+$410
30 days+$1,289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$450
other 8% −$451
politics 4% −$138
finance 3% +$338
crypto 1% −$112
world 1% −$39
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +62.9% +47.4% 75% 50% +12.8%
≤30d 33 +7.1% -3.1% 45% 39% +7.2%
≤90d 79 +8.9% -1.5% 37% 33% -12.2%
all 107 +9.1% -1.3% 38% 34% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 34% -13.5%
10% -10.7% 33% -21.8%
15% -19.4% 31% -29.4%
20% -27.3% 28% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$96 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$671
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses41 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage146d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 6¢ $39 $11 −$28 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $102 +$148 +144%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $345 −$134 -39%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $582 +$58 +10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $164 +$223 +137%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $199 −$197 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $41 −$1 -2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $105 −$103 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $194 +$345 +178%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $148 +$72 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $510 +$489 +96%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 03 $63 +$4 +7%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $276 +$35 +12%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $64 −$64 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $96 +$378 +395%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $224 −$224 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,021 −$80 -8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $134 −$14 -10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $270 −$34 -13%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $131 +$166 +127%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 30 $164 +$208 +127%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $144 +$56 +39%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $196 −$184 -94%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $91 −$91 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 25 $66 −$54 -82%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $220 +$110 +50%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $79 +$21 +26%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $210 −$69 -33%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $751 +$490 +65%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $190 −$86 -45%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs SAW (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual May 22 $92 −$92 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 22 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Beijing Ducks May 17 $43 +$107 +249%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner May 17 $282 +$154 +55%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $149 −$47 -32%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 17 $45 −$25 -56%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight May 17 $66 +$54 +82%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 16 $85 +$48 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 16 $103 −$102 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 16 $67 −$67 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 16 $103 −$35 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 10 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 10 $26 +$21 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 10 $25 +$2 +7%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 10 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 10 $36 +$15 +41%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 10 $116 −$116 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner May 10 $134 −$30 -22%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 09 $132 −$9 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $40 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 41¢ $102 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 36¢ $106 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 35¢ $105 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 45¢ $114 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 66¢ $231 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $44 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 52¢ $67 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 21¢ $20 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 21¢ $1 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 42¢ $5 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 42¢ $21 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 42¢ $37 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 42¢ $1 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 42¢ $29 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 42¢ $2 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 60¢ $93 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 60¢ $1 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 60¢ $85 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 39¢ $99 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 55¢ $192 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 51¢ $255 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 53¢ $269 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $34 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $0 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $18 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $0 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $10 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 25¢ $26 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 29¢ $87 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.54 · official $10.54 (match) · 597 history records