Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9F 0x9f4b…abcb sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$158 (+18%) realized +$9 · open +$149
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$56
other 34% +$239
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +45.1% +31.3% 75% 75% +14.2%
≤30d 4 +45.1% +31.3% 75% 75% +14.2%
≤90d 4 +45.1% +31.3% 75% 75% +14.2%
all 4 +45.1% +31.3% 75% 75% +14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.3% 75% +14.2%
10% +18.7% 75% +3.3%
15% +7.3% 50% -6.7%
20% -3.3% 50% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$106 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.37 per $1 lost it wins $2.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$397
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$149
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Over 50¢ 100¢ $100 $200 +$100 (+100%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 50¢ 86¢ $100 $171 +$71 (+71%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 48¢ 26¢ $48 $26 −$22 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $202 −$106 -52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 +$49 +117%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $105 +$35 +33%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $204 +$168 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 49m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 48¢ $48 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 22¢ $44 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 46¢ $92 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 46¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $100 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $96 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $99 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $46 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $58 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $38 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $4 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $103 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $397.40 · official $397.40 (match) · 20 history records