Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:31:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9F 0x9f4d…cfc5 sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$925 (+41%) realized +$921 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% +$927
sports 24% −$11
other 6% +$29
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +4.2% -5.8% 45% 45% -10.5%
≤30d 40 +4.2% -5.8% 45% 45% -10.5%
≤90d 40 +4.2% -5.8% 45% 45% -10.5%
all 41 +5.5% -4.5% 46% 46% +28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 46% +28.8%
10% -13.7% 44% +16.5%
15% -22.0% 44% +5.2%
20% -29.7% 37% -5.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$11 · ×5.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.89 per $1 lost it wins $4.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$921
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)41 / 47
History coverage586d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden to win the second half? Yes 43¢ 83¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+93%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden 51¢ 72¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+40%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 +$13 +128%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 −$12 -59%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$1 -13%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 +$33 +650%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $18 +$16 +88%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 +$6 +59%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $30 −$15 -49%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$13 +123%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $45 +$27 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $81 −$37 -46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $15 +$6 +39%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $36 −$15 -42%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$12 +118%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $40 +$27 +67%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $14 +$7 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $22 +$12 +55%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $1,549 +$927 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden to win the second half? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 32m
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 51¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $23 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 5h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 20¢ $8 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $30 9h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 11h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $20 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $0 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $9 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 11h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 13h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $10 23h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 23h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $12 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $34 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 32¢ $3 30h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 47¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 31h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $10 31h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 100¢ $16 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.51 · official $33.51 (match) · 99 history records