Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:09:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9F 0x9f4f…8f91 crypto 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%25W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$531per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 91% −$14
crypto 5% +$1
other 3% +$1
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 27 +0.3% -9.3% 93% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses25 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage211d
Avg bet$531
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $57 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 21 $142 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 21 $146 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 12 $15 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 12 $54 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Apr 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 11? Mar 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? Mar 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 08 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? Feb 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? Feb 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? Feb 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 10 $54 $0 +0%
Will Demeco Ryans win NFL Coach of the Year? Jan 31 $70 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 31 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jan 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? Jan 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 22? Dec 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Dec 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Dec 29 $60 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 22 $14,441 −$14 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $74 1h
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $75 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 1h
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 31d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $142 31d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 70d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $146 70d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 105d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 105d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $54 105d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 131d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 11? BUY No 100¢ $26 131d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $75 131d
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $40 141d
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 141d
Will Demeco Ryans win NFL Coach of the Year? SELL No 100¢ $70 141d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 141d
Will Demeco Ryans win NFL Coach of the Year? BUY No 100¢ $70 160d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $54 160d
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? BUY No 100¢ $35 160d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $25 160d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 160d
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 174d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $65 174d
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $45 174d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 BUY No 100¢ $36 174d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 211d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 BUY No 100¢ $20 211d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $60 211d
Will Solana reach $300 in November? BUY No 100¢ $50 211d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.91 · official $190.91 (match) · 67 history records