Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:02:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

9F 0x9f51…bdcb crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$12 (-21%) realized −$11 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip

Net edge-29%after slip

Net WR56%break-even

Win rate56%5W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$6per market

Trades / day8.1pace

Kalshi-fit90%portable

Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +56%

net ROI/market (all)-23.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-15.0%	-23.1%	56%	56%	-30.2%
≤30d	9	-15.0%	-23.1%	56%	56%	-30.2%
≤90d	9	-15.0%	-23.1%	56%	56%	-30.2%
all	9	-15.0%	-23.1%	56%	56%	-30.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-23.1%	56%	-30.2%
10%	-30.4%	56%	-36.8%
15%	-37.2%	56%	-42.9%
20%	-43.3%	11%	-48.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 52% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -15% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.54 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$4

Realized−$11

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)56%

Wins / losses5 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)9 / 10

History coverage1d

Avg bet$6

Trades / day8.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia?	Yes	7¢	5¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-26%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$5	+90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$2	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$2	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$2	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$2	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$5	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$5	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$5	32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$5	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$5	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$5	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$5	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$5	33h
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	33h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.68 · official $3.68 (match) · 23 history records