Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f52…6f28 crypto 476 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,372 (+7%) realized +$2,373 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%274W / 199L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$85
14 days+$85
30 days+$564
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% +$43
crypto 26% +$149
other 25% +$2,151
world 15% +$26
politics 1% −$8
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +17.4% +6.2% 64% 36% -7.3%
≤30d 18 +33.1% +20.4% 72% 50% -3.8%
≤90d 379 -23.5% -30.8% 62% 58% -8.7%
all 473 -12.5% -20.9% 58% 52% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 52% -3.4%
10% -28.4% 9% -12.6%
15% -35.4% 6% -21.1%
20% -41.7% 5% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized+$2,373
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses274 / 199
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)473 / 476
History coverage220d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 473 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $70 $74 +$4 (+6%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+25%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$18 +85%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $963 +$27 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $181 +$32 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,230 +$111 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $525 −$126 -24%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $130 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $308 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 02 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $228 +$228 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 30 $20 +$20 +100%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? May 26 $5,182 +$192 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 25 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 24 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 17 $21 −$8 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 17 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 17 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 17 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 17 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 17 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 17 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 17 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 17 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 17 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $68 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $22 12h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $93 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $13 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 99¢ $990 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $72 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $57 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $901 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $57 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $191 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $130 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $26 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $540 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $19 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $781 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $46 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 13¢ $38 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 13¢ $13 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 13¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.38 · official $169.38 (match) · 2220 history records