Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:59:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f54…b1ab other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,005 (-60%) realized −$1,005 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day46.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$501
other 31% −$368
sports 26% −$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+51.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +67.1% +51.2% 17% 17% -65.8%
≤30d 12 +67.1% +51.2% 17% 17% -65.8%
≤90d 12 +67.1% +51.2% 17% 17% -65.8%
all 12 +67.1% +51.2% 17% 17% -65.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +51.2% 17% -65.8%
10% ← realistic here +36.7% 17% -69.1%
15% +23.5% 17% -72.1%
20% +11.4% 17% -74.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt -62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +152% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$110 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,005
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $216 −$18 -8%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $122 −$51 -42%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $22 +$53 +243%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $307 −$300 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $720 −$501 -70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $55 −$4 -6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $96 −$95 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $43 −$42 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 +$13 +1288%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $103 35m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $108 42m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $95 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $108 2h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 4¢ $10 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 12h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 12h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 12h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records