Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:45:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
9F 0x9f54…6044 other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$15 (+19%) realized +$17 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%22W / 41L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$7
14 days+$6
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$3
sports 13% +$8
world 3% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +19.5% +8.1% 32% 32% +10.2%
≤30d 53 +22.6% +10.9% 38% 36% +13.1%
≤90d 63 +11.1% +0.5% 35% 33% +3.7%
all 63 +11.1% +0.5% 35% 33% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 33% +3.7%
10% -9.1% 33% -6.2%
15% -17.9% 33% -15.3%
20% -26.0% 32% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses22 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)63 / 67
History coverage36d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 $0 -33%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +357%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 +$7 +642%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 $0 -16%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 +$5 +473%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$1 +67%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$3 +275%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 24 $1 +$3 +302%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$3 +246%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $2 +$1 +67%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $1 $0 +9%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? May 17 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$1 +59%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 17 $1 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes $1 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes $1 12h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes $1 13h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 13h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 24h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes $2 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 28h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes $1 42h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 42h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes $1 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 42h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 42h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 42h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 46h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.25 · official $2.25 (match) · 101 history records