Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:59:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f55…04fb weather 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$20 (-8%) realized −$22 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -18.7% -26.4% 60% 20% -20.4%
≤30d 10 -18.7% -26.4% 60% 20% -20.4%
≤90d 10 -18.7% -26.4% 60% 20% -20.4%
all 10 -18.7% -26.4% 60% 20% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 20% -20.4%
10% -33.5% 10% -28.1%
15% -39.9% 10% -35.0%
20% -45.8% 10% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? No 81¢ 84¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $43 +$6 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 −$23 -58%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $11 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $55 +$3 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19? Jun 18 $8 −$4 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 19? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -72%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 81¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 99¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $5 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 95¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 83¢ $38 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? SELL Yes 16¢ $11 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $58 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 73¢ $4 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $55 20h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 20h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 19? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $10 22h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 19? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 23h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19? SELL Yes 63¢ $6 23h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 26h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 30h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.22 · official $62.22 (match) · 30 history records