Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f57…3272 crypto 412 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$865 (-11%) realized −$794 · open −$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate41%163W / 236L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$26
14 days+$46
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$67
crypto 26% −$639
finance 8% +$99
politics 8% −$133
other 6% −$83
tech 1% −$30
culture 0% $0
economics 0% −$13
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-30.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -26.6% -33.6% 38% 31% -28.1%
≤30d 37 +9.4% -1.0% 51% 38% +14.4%
≤90d 66 -25.6% -32.7% 38% 29% -48.8%
all 399 -23.1% -30.5% 41% 29% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.5% 29% -19.1%
10% -37.1% 23% -26.8%
15% -43.2% 18% -33.9%
20% -48.8% 14% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$794
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses163 / 236
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)399 / 412
History coverage164d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $75 $57 −$18 (-24%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $24 $44 +$20 (+84%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 73¢ 96¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+30%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 36¢ 37¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 79¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $71 $4 −$67 (-95%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-91%)
Will Trump say "Four More Years" in June? Yes 61¢ 41¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 22 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $1 +$2 +192%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 16 $4 −$2 -47%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +64%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $6 +$24 +396%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$6 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$11 +96%
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$5 +46%
Will Trump say "Border" 5+ times during events in Rockland County? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Turkey" or "Turkiye" in May? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $10 +$63 +630%
Will "Imagine" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the we Jun 05 $4 $0 +4%
Will "Attention" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the Jun 05 $5 $0 +3%
Will "Trump" be said 10+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience o Jun 05 $5 $0 +7%
Will Trump say "Job" 7+ times during events in Rockland County? Jun 01 $2 $0 +13%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during events in Rockland County Jun 01 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Trump say "Israel" during events in Rockland County? Jun 01 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Trump say "Save America" during events in Rockland County? Jun 01 $5 $0 +8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? Jun 01 $5 +$12 +245%
Starmer approval Up or Down in April? May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 07 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 07 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 97¢ $31 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 34¢ $1 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY 3¢ $5 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June? SELL No 84¢ $1 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 83¢ $5 5d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $30 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 8d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 9d
Will Trump say "Four More Years" in June? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 9d
Will Trump say "Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer" in June? BUY No 84¢ $1 9d
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 9d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $192.95 · official $193.02 (match) · 1932 history records