Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f57…c930 politics 3 markets active 7h ago coverage 135d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$3,152 (-28%) realized −$920 · open −$2,232
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,687per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 135d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% −$3,284
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -37.2% -43.2% 0% 0% -43.2%
≤90d 1 -37.2% -43.2% 0% 0% -43.2%
all 2 +27.9% +15.7% 50% 50% -43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.7% 50% -43.1%
10% +4.6% 50% -48.6%
15% -5.5% 50% -53.6%
20% -14.7% 50% -58.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
9.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1,052 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$5,461
Realized−$920
Unrealized−$2,232
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage135d
Avg bet$3,687
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $7,693 $5,461 −$2,232 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,827 −$1,052 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 19 $1 +$1 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $897 7h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1,140 19d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $615 74d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $5 74d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $355 81d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $3 107d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 107d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 107d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 107d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 107d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $15 107d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $16 107d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1,874 107d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $43 107d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $350 107d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 107d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $334 107d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $250 108d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $235 108d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $550 113d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $200 116d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $150 120d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $109 120d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $350 121d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 121d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $25 121d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $260 121d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $275 122d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $360 127d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $44 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,461.43 · official $5,461.43 (match) · 176 history records