Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9F 0x9f5d…91db sports 31 markets active 5d ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$259 (+48%) realized +$259 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%19W / 12L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$54
14 days+$68
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$148
other 21% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +22.6% +10.9% 70% 70% +9.5%
≤30d 12 +21.8% +10.2% 75% 75% +9.1%
≤90d 17 -2.5% -11.8% 59% 59% +1.3%
all 31 +17.6% +6.4% 61% 61% +32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 61% +32.9%
10% -3.8% 55% +20.2%
15% -13.1% 48% +8.6%
20% -21.6% 39% -2.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$7 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.18 per $1 lost it wins $4.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$259
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses19 / 12
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage169d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $26 −$20 -77%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $48 +$28 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $37 +$10 +28%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $22 −$13 -60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$9 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $6 +$12 +197%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 +$20 +64%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $34 +$9 +28%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$3 +15%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $54 +$11 +20%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Anish Giri vs. Praggnanandhaa R end in a draw? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Hikaru Nakamura vs. Fabiano Caruana end in a draw? Apr 07 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Andrey Esipenko vs. Javokhir Sindarov end in a draw? Apr 07 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Yi Wei win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 07 $5 −$4 -79%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $16 +$7 +43%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $49 +$87 +178%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Feb 02 $1 +$1 +125%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Feb 02 $2 −$1 -50%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 02 $1 +$1 +122%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Feb 01 $2 +$1 +72%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 01 $1 +$2 +170%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Feb 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Magnus Carlsen wins both World Rapid & Blitz Championships? Dec 30 $11 +$16 +150%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? Dec 30 $46 +$47 +102%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship? Dec 28 $45 +$57 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 16¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $26 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL FURIA 100¢ $76 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $48 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $48 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 79¢ $12 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 25¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 77¢ $25 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 60¢ $22 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $29 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 69¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $18 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $6 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $50 6d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 52¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $30 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 83¢ $44 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 75¢ $23 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $34 7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 99¢ $65 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 82¢ $54 7d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 72d
Will Anish Giri vs. Praggnanandhaa R end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 72d
Will Hikaru Nakamura vs. Fabiano Caruana end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 72d
Will Andrey Esipenko vs. Javokhir Sindarov end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 72d
Will Yi Wei win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 72d
Will Hikaru Nakamura vs. Fabiano Caruana end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $9 72d
Will Yi Wei win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records