Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9F 0x9f5d…7590 sports 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$181 (+57%) realized +$182 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$213
14 days+$204
30 days+$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$211
other 6% −$10
crypto 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +41.7% +28.2% 45% 45% +67.6%
≤30d 23 +29.2% +16.9% 43% 43% +61.7%
≤90d 23 +29.2% +16.9% 43% 43% +61.7%
all 30 +30.2% +17.8% 40% 40% +60.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.8% 40% +60.0%
10% +6.5% 40% +44.7%
15% -3.8% 37% +30.7%
20% -13.2% 33% +17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +79% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +55% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$6 · ×4.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$182
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage124d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Over 16¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 35¢ 34¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 +$40 +262%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $31 +$68 +221%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $30 +$25 +82%
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 +$42 +413%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$31 +152%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $40 +$101 +249%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +56%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +413%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Feb 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 17 $1 +$5 +452%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Feb 17 $1 +$3 +281%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 18? Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $31 16m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $15 18m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 60¢ $99 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $15 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $31 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $0 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $3 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $41 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $3 45h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $9 46h
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 46h
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $53 46h
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Australia: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $132 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 6¢ $9 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $40 3d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $6 3d
Croatia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 52¢ $1 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $21 5d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $1 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.84 · official $43.85 (match) · 61 history records