Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:57:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9F 0x9f5e…3f54 crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate79%15W / 4L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.4% -9.9% 79% 42% -5.9%
≤30d 19 -0.4% -9.9% 79% 42% -5.9%
≤90d 19 -0.4% -9.9% 79% 42% -5.9%
all 19 -0.4% -9.9% 79% 42% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 42% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 0% -14.9%
15% -26.4% 0% -23.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses15 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$10 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$7 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $57 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $50 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $55 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $60 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $50 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records