Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f5e…a726 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$258 (+18%) realized +$258 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$4
crypto 21% +$2
sports 12% +$64
weather 8% +$196
politics 5% $0
other 4% $0
finance 4% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.4% -9.9% 27% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 19 -5.5% -14.5% 26% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 19 -5.5% -14.5% 26% 0% -9.9%
all 31 +2.5% -7.2% 42% 6% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 6% +7.7%
10% -16.1% 6% -2.6%
15% -24.2% 6% -12.0%
20% -31.6% 6% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$1 · ×32.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×38.3 per $1 lost it wins $38.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$258
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage480d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $50 −$3 -6%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $14 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $85 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $71 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $45 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $53 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $47 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $51 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 08 $62 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $54 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $3 $0 +2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Gregory Rusland be the next president of Suriname after the elect Dec 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 21 $12 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? Mar 11 $309 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 4? Mar 05 $114 +$196 +172%
Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights Mar 04 $114 $0 +0%
Lamar vs. Incarnate Word Mar 04 $62 +$64 +104%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 47.5% and 47.9% on Februar Feb 24 $61 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 21h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $3 26h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $3 28h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 12¢ $0 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $11 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $48 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $14 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $14 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $11 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $11 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $36 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $6 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $44 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 29¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $4 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.48 · official $40.48 (match) · 103 history records