Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9F 0x9f5f…6fbd crypto 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$374 (+0%) realized +$374 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%46W / 11L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$1,591per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$58
other 20% +$40
world 5% −$1
politics 5% +$274
tech 2% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -11.1% -19.6% 0% 0% -23.1%
≤30d 7 -6.3% -15.2% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 16 -2.1% -11.5% 56% 0% -8.7%
all 57 -0.5% -10.0% 81% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.1%
10% -18.6% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.5% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,460) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.73 per $1 lost it wins $10.73
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$374
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses46 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage237d
Avg bet$1,591
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 30? Jun 29 $44 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 30? Jun 29 $10 $0 -4%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 27 $56 −$16 -28%
Will Brent Hennrich advance to the general election for WA-03? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3,791 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 01 $3,715 +$3 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $3,538 +$35 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 27? May 27 $3,653 +$3 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $3,653 $0 +0%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $3,646 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 16 $3,643 +$3 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $3,347 +$291 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 04 $3,361 −$14 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 3? May 03 $3,357 +$3 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? May 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on February 16? Feb 17 $1,464 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 15? Feb 16 $1,463 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 14? Feb 15 $1,462 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 9 above $2.50? Feb 14 $1,460 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $1,459 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 11? Feb 12 $1,456 +$3 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.90 and $2.00 on February 9? Feb 10 $1,454 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 8? Feb 09 $1,453 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on February 7? Feb 08 $1,450 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $1,441 +$10 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 4? Feb 06 $1,440 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 3? Feb 04 $1,437 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on February 2? Feb 03 $1,435 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $1,431 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Feb 01 $1,431 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 30? Jan 31 $1,430 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on January 29? Jan 30 $1,430 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 26 Jan 28 $1,428 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 January 19-25? Jan 26 $1,427 +$1 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of January 19 above $290? Jan 24 $1,425 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.60 on January 21? Jan 22 $1,424 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $84,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $1,423 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 18? Jan 19 $1,420 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of January 12 above $9.00? Jan 17 $181 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of January 12 above $9.50? Jan 17 $1,239 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.60 on January 15? Jan 16 $1,418 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110,000 on November 15? Nov 16 $1,418 +$1 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 15 $1,418 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110,000 on November 13? Nov 14 $306 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on November 13? Nov 14 $510 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $92,000 on November 13? Nov 14 $602 +$1 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 13 $1,419 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 12 $2,832 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 30? SELL No 79¢ $43 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 30? BUY No 79¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 30? BUY No 79¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 30? BUY No 79¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 4h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 45¢ $40 47h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 61¢ $56 3d
Will Brent Hennrich advance to the general election for WA-03? SELL Yes $4 4d
Will Brent Hennrich advance to the general election for WA-03? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $53 8d
Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $53 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,791 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $2,120 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $50 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $446 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $50 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 18d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $46 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.00 (match) · 243 history records