Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:42:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f5f…c63d other 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,058 (+0%) realized +$16,100 · open −$15,042
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate88%77W / 11L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,511per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$489est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$52,608now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 99d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$6,778
other 44% +$3,320
crypto 9% −$12,030
weather 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -6.8% -15.7% 79% 49% -7.4%
≤30d 46 -2.6% -11.8% 83% 50% -6.4%
≤90d 71 -1.9% -11.2% 86% 37% -9.7%
all 88 -1.7% -11.0% 88% 31% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 31% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 10% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 5% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$1,106) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$356 vs −$2,531 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$52,608
Realized+$16,100
Unrealized−$15,042
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses77 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$489
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage99d
Avg bet$4,511
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Tunisia 90¢ 70¢ $67,623 $52,577 −$15,047 (-22%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $27 $32 +$5 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 21 $54,984 +$2,855 +5%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $50,046 +$4,925 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +31%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $12,043 −$12,000 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,511 +$101 +4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $15,242 +$1,519 +10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $1,619 +$1,047 +65%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $20,042 +$1,549 +8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $31,777 +$3,567 +11%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $251 +$24 +10%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $1,585 +$169 +11%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $1,502 +$59 +4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 +$17 +17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $46,342 +$2,902 +6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $186 +$67 +36%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,103 +$106 +10%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,006 −$1,000 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,009 +$112 +11%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,005 +$186 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $695 −$690 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,004 +$172 +17%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,004 +$147 +15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,005 +$214 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,104 +$160 +14%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $740 −$734 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $80 +$4 +5%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $501 +$37 +7%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $100 +$16 +16%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,106 −$1,015 -92%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5,027 +$1,071 +21%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1,008 +$331 +33%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,007 −$904 -90%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1,005 +$184 +18%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $100 +$12 +12%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,012 +$423 +8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,019 +$788 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,004 +$159 +16%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,505 +$183 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2,521 +$951 +38%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10,024 +$846 +8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9,997 +$1,668 +17%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 08 $35,233 −$11,147 -32%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $1,499 +$170 +11%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Pr May 03 $1,500 +$255 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 14? Apr 14 $171 −$154 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Tunisia 77¢ $9,725 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Tunisia 91¢ $266 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $27 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Tunisia 93¢ $57,826 3h
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 95¢ $54,984 6h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 90¢ $29,998 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 12h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 92¢ $20,048 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $12,043 16h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $2,511 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 60¢ $1,558 29h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 60¢ $60 29h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 91¢ $15,242 32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 93¢ $20,042 32h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 80¢ $1,689 34h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 92¢ $18,044 37h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $12,043 37h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 91¢ $251 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? SELL No 100¢ $1,754 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY No 90¢ $1,585 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $1,561 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 96¢ $1,502 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $100 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 94¢ $44,881 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $1,461 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $186 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,006 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 79¢ $1,121 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 70¢ $1,009 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52,608.36 · official $52,608.36 (match) · 237 history records