Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:12:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f60…b0a4 other 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$215 (-9%) realized −$73 · open −$142
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate27%19W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$66
14 days−$51
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$104
world 23% −$226
sports 17% −$27
politics 5% +$14
crypto 3% −$38
tech 2% −$36
economics 1% +$56
finance 1% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -55.2% -59.5% 25% 19% -25.2%
≤30d 24 -37.1% -43.1% 25% 21% -25.1%
≤90d 70 +18.0% +6.8% 27% 21% -18.3%
all 70 +18.0% +6.8% 27% 21% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 21% -18.3%
10% -3.4% 14% -26.1%
15% -12.8% 14% -33.3%
20% -21.3% 13% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$15 · ×2.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized−$73
Unrealized−$142
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses19 / 51
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions15
Markets (closed)70 / 86
History coverage76d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $85 $66 −$19 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $42 $47 +$5 (+13%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 30¢ 36¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will a player representing USA be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-53%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $29 $7 −$22 (-77%)
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-45%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 30¢ 8¢ $19 $5 −$14 (-73%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 8¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-76%)
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $49 $4 −$45 (-92%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-58%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-84%)
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $55 +$99 +180%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 16 $21 +$4 +20%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 16 $50 −$15 -29%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $25 $0 +1%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 +$23 +45%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $25 −$25 -97%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 08 $21 −$14 -69%
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $56 +$64 +113%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $9 +$28 +307%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 31 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 22 $42 −$40 -97%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? May 15 $260 +$34 +13%
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season? May 15 $192 +$18 +9%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (April 27 - May 3) Apr 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Apr 22 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 22 $10 +$38 +376%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after t Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? Apr 18 $10 −$9 -93%
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte Apr 16 $10 +$76 +763%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 15 $59 +$34 +58%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 13 $15 −$14 -97%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Apr 13 $20 $0 -0%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? Apr 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 11 $5 +$78 +1567%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026? Apr 09 $8 +$1 +7%
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $19 −$8 -41%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30? Apr 08 $15 −$7 -48%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 08 $50 −$32 -63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY 12¢ $31 15h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 19¢ $14 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $55 2d
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? SELL No 16¢ $25 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $35 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $25 2d
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 18¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 31¢ $10 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 25¢ $10 4d
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5d
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 52¢ $20 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 28¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $17 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 5d
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? BUY No 13¢ $21 5d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $20 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 5d
Will a player representing USA be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 4¢ $15 5d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 33¢ $74 5d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No 2¢ $6 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.91 · official $233.96 · 181 history records