Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:12:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9F 0x9f61…6a55 world 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$251 (+1%) realized +$264 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate59%115W / 79L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$947now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$58
14 days+$113
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$141
other 14% +$10
crypto 4% +$48
tech 4% +$3
politics 2% +$58
finance 2% +$5
sports 2% +$2
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.8% -10.3% 53% 13% -7.7%
≤30d 51 -0.4% -9.9% 59% 6% -7.8%
≤90d 185 +5.3% -4.7% 61% 8% -8.0%
all 194 +4.1% -5.8% 59% 8% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 8% -8.1%
10% -14.8% 4% -16.9%
15% -23.1% 3% -24.9%
20% -30.6% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$947
Realized+$264
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses115 / 79
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)194 / 199
History coverage95d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 98¢ $440 $445 +$5 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $286 $293 +$7 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $195 $197 +$3 (+1%)
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 18¢ $24 $2 −$22 (-90%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $437 +$6 +1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $9 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $124 +$17 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $17 −$3 -19%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $287 +$13 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jun 13 $1,491 +$26 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $101 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $404 +$4 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +18%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $9 $0 -4%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $7 −$1 -19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $303 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $47 +$3 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $9 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $2 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $46 −$6 -13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460? Jun 06 $6 +$2 +26%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $754 +$50 +7%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 02 $180 $0 -0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $204 +$2 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $213 +$4 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $79 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $97 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $19 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont May 31 $11 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $98 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 31 $149 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $232 +$5 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $2 $0 -1%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? May 27 $52 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $108 +$10 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $125 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $53 +$2 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $408 −$1 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $171 +$2 +1%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 24 $72 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $117 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $34 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 18 $47 −$5 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $18 −$6 -32%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control May 16 $3 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $305 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $106 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $51 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $6 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $31 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $95 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $95 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $38 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $10 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 98¢ $201 8h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $9 11h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $16 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $3 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $3 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $16 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $9 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $34 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 99¢ $274 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 99¢ $1 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 99¢ $44 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 98¢ $98 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 98¢ $10 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 98¢ $3 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 98¢ $3 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 98¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $947.32 · official $947.32 (match) · 1472 history records