Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9F 0x9f61…45d7 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+1%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$43
14 days+$44
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$3
crypto 29% +$3
sports 22% +$46
world 10% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -20.5% -28.1% 31% 31% -5.8%
≤30d 22 -16.0% -24.0% 36% 23% -8.6%
≤90d 22 -16.0% -24.0% 36% 23% -8.6%
all 22 -16.0% -24.0% 36% 23% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 23% -8.6%
10% -31.3% 23% -17.3%
15% -37.9% 18% -25.3%
20% -44.0% 14% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$15 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage23d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $67 +$22 +32%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $40 +$26 +64%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $4 +$11 +270%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $16 −$16 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $12 −$12 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $40 +$26 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $440 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $400 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $450 +$1 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $490 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $480 +$1 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $486 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $335 +$165 +49%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $337 −$8 -2%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $158 −$155 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 08 $421 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $67 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $13 24h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $40 41h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $4 46h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down $0 47h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $16 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $12 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $40 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down $0 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down $0 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up $0 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up $0 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up $0 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $440 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $440 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $400 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $400 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $450 9d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $489 11d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $490 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $480 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $535 13d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $536 14d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $485 14d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $486 16d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 67¢ $149 18d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 67¢ $10 18d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 67¢ $20 18d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 67¢ $13 18d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 67¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records