Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f63…9551 crypto 300 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (159 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,494 (-9%) realized −$9,896 · open −$598
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate56%152W / 119L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$403per market
Trades / day159.0pace
Fees−$758est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,959now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$839
7 days−$15,836
14 days−$8,700
30 days−$8,591
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$8,938
crypto 40% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (159 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -13.0% -21.2% 55% 34% -28.5%
≤30d 271 -7.4% -16.2% 56% 42% -16.1%
≤90d 271 -7.4% -16.2% 56% 42% -16.1%
all 271 -7.4% -16.2% 56% 42% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover159.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 42% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 33% -24.1%
15% -31.5% 27% -31.4%
20% -38.2% 20% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$304 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$1,959
Realized−$9,896
Unrealized−$598
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses152 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$758
Open positions29
Markets (closed)271 / 300
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$403
Trades / day159.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 86¢ 100¢ $415 $481 +$66 (+16%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? No 88¢ 97¢ $258 $286 +$28 (+11%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $263 $266 +$4 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $214 $223 +$9 (+4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $199 $199 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? No 92¢ 90¢ $166 $164 −$2 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? No 80¢ 94¢ $47 $55 +$8 (+17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $212 $54 −$158 (-74%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? No 3¢ 4¢ $36 $39 +$2 (+7%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 19? No 95¢ 96¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? No 8¢ 3¢ $77 $26 −$51 (-66%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 75¢ 86¢ $20 $24 +$3 (+16%)
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 18? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? No 8¢ 2¢ $59 $11 −$48 (-82%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? No 77¢ 90¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Yes 28¢ 10¢ $27 $9 −$18 (-66%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 18? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? No 6¢ 1¢ $64 $7 −$57 (-89%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? No 87¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 20? No 92¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 21? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $8 $5 −$4 (-45%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? No 3¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+34%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? No 2¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 16? Jun 16 $39 +$5 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,311 +$31 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5,318 +$816 +15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $302 +$17 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $4,922 +$497 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $557 −$9 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 13? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $429 −$320 -75%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 14? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $507 −$186 -37%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $611 −$611 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $588 −$588 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $569 −$569 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $6,066 +$187 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $235 −$57 -24%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 14? Jun 14 $105 +$6 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $224 +$27 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $239 −$50 -21%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 14? Jun 14 $597 +$3 +1%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $389 +$97 +25%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $121 +$304 +251%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,278 +$517 +40%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,214 +$286 +24%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,189 +$411 +34%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 13? Jun 13 $998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $15 −$6 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $31 −$4 -14%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $687 +$355 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $197 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $523 +$88 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $317 −$150 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $417 −$36 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $421 +$29 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $327 −$116 -35%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $273 −$273 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $128 −$10 -8%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5,025 −$5,025 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $5,129 −$5,129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $201 +$51 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $56 −$40 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 22? BUY No 2¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? BUY No 3¢ $36 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $16 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $19 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $19 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $19 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $13 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $54 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $6 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 23? BUY No 2¢ $0 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $5 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $30 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $25 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $71 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,959.21 · official $1,962.99 (match) · 3500 history records