Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:43:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f66…3a50 world 382 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$9,817 (+3%) realized +$12,653 · open −$2,836
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate65%210W / 112L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$783per market
Trades / day69.9pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$19,221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$20,089
other 7% +$1,259
politics 4% −$1,232
sports 4% +$1,424
finance 3% −$1,101
tech 1% +$231
culture 1% +$201
crypto 0% −$86
economics 0% −$211
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -11.5% -19.9% 57% 34% -12.8%
≤30d 250 -4.4% -13.5% 66% 34% -5.2%
≤90d 322 +13.1% +2.3% 65% 37% -1.4%
all 322 +13.1% +2.3% 65% 37% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.3% 37% -1.4%
10% -7.5% 18% -10.8%
15% ← realistic here -16.4% 11% -19.4%
20% -24.6% 8% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$917) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +36% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$192 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$19,221
Realized+$12,653
Unrealized−$2,836
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses210 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions61
Markets (closed)322 / 382
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$783
Trades / day69.9
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 84¢ 93¢ $2,395 $2,658 +$263 (+11%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 82¢ 96¢ $1,327 $1,551 +$224 (+17%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 81¢ 90¢ $1,211 $1,331 +$120 (+10%)
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 30? No 75¢ 83¢ $1,087 $1,203 +$117 (+11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $922 $1,174 +$251 (+27%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 70¢ 98¢ $820 $1,142 +$322 (+39%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? No 67¢ 84¢ $895 $1,129 +$234 (+26%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 99¢ $720 $823 +$103 (+14%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $800 $781 −$19 (-2%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 55¢ $705 $570 −$135 (-19%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 72¢ 90¢ $440 $552 +$112 (+25%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 31¢ 6¢ $3,025 $533 −$2,492 (-82%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 78¢ 89¢ $418 $476 +$58 (+14%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 64¢ $471 $399 −$72 (-15%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $400 $388 −$12 (-3%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 90¢ 87¢ $400 $387 −$13 (-3%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 67¢ 99¢ $227 $336 +$109 (+48%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 81¢ 83¢ $300 $308 +$8 (+3%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 75¢ 71¢ $300 $285 −$15 (-5%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 39¢ 54¢ $150 $208 +$58 (+39%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Yes 79¢ 98¢ $160 $198 +$38 (+24%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 78¢ $200 $189 −$11 (-5%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 23¢ 22¢ $177 $169 −$8 (-5%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 69¢ 70¢ $157 $160 +$3 (+2%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 93¢ 96¢ $140 $145 +$5 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $1,350 −$20 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $200 −$28 -14%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $960 −$37 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $3,925 +$772 +20%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $664 −$625 -94%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $30 −$17 -58%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 17 $577 −$492 -85%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 17 $355 −$259 -73%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $2,631 +$339 +13%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $556 +$81 +14%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $409 +$167 +41%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 16 $78 −$51 -66%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 16 $122 −$102 -84%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $847 −$370 -44%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 16 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 16 $340 −$340 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $200 +$14 +7%
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Jake Paul attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $301 +$23 +8%
Will Hasbulla attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $3,005 +$1,006 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2,337 −$379 -16%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $680 +$158 +23%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $401 +$43 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $7,377 +$114 +2%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $112 +$50 +45%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $616 +$282 +46%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 +$14 +67%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $259 +$64 +24%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $301 +$37 +12%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $302 +$73 +24%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $302 +$65 +22%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $296 +$85 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $193 −$7 -4%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $192 +$120 +62%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $2,066 +$237 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $3,104 −$900 -29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $4,312 −$2,716 -63%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $3,766 +$231 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $1,928 +$161 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $4,332 −$191 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $300 2m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $20 21m
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $800 24m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $5 37m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $100 44m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 47m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 88¢ $161 48m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 51m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $172 51m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $1,048 51m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $361 52m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 89¢ $100 55m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 55m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 75¢ $225 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 75¢ $225 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 50¢ $100 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 77¢ $421 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $89 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $77 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $620 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 71¢ $100 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,220.65 · official $19,264.23 (match) · 3500 history records