Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:26:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9F 0x9f69…78e2 crypto 1045 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$160 (-1%) realized −$159 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%351W / 692L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day32.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$336
14 days+$1,109
30 days−$1,583
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$34
sports 1% −$58
other 0% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -16.4% -24.3% 39% 38% -38.1%
≤30d 542 -28.8% -35.6% 28% 27% -29.7%
≤90d 1043 -15.9% -23.9% 34% 33% -10.6%
all 1043 -15.9% -23.9% 34% 33% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 33% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 33% -19.2%
15% -37.9% 33% -27.0%
20% -43.9% 32% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$10 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$159
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses351 / 692
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1043 / 1045
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day32.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1043 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-64%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $114 +$111 +97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 25 $14 +$24 +172%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $49 −$46 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$6 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$6 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$6 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$6 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$6 +169%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 16¢ $226 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 45¢ $37 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 7¢ $110 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $14 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 6¢ $61 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 6¢ $38 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.65 · official $0.65 (match) · 3500 history records