Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:42:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f6a…1fe7 crypto 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 773d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$605 (-8%) realized −$605 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%24W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,115
7 days−$1,115
14 days−$1,957
30 days−$1,852
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$1,478
sports 18% −$170
other 17% −$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -71.3% -74.0% 10% 5% -84.6%
≤30d 68 -35.0% -41.2% 31% 28% -35.5%
≤90d 68 -35.0% -41.2% 31% 28% -35.5%
all 73 -23.7% -31.0% 33% 29% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 29% -35.2%
10% -37.6% 27% -41.4%
15% -43.6% 25% -47.1%
20% -49.2% 18% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$68 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

773d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$605
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses24 / 49
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage773d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $71 −$30 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $88 −$84 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $158 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $234 −$172 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $230 −$55 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $175 −$37 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $178 −$54 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $19 −$9 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $13 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $146 −$146 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $208 −$201 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $127 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $185 −$33 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $333 −$103 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $171 +$150 +88%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 19 $180 −$100 -56%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 19 $46 +$6 +12%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 19 $113 −$113 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 19 $34 −$23 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 19 $92 −$92 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $106 −$32 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $314 −$314 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $458 −$458 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 +$57 +37%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $226 +$124 +55%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $78 +$52 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $174 +$71 +40%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $232 −$190 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$16 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$25 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$10 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $7 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $9 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $7 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $7 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $16 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $28 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $37 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $41 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $16 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 555 history records