Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:58:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9F 0x9f6c…47c4 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 73d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$180 (+16%) realized +$179 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days+$169
14 days+$169
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$270
sports 9% −$100
world 3% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +20.7% +9.2% 71% 71% +5.6%
≤30d 7 +20.7% +9.2% 71% 71% +5.6%
≤90d 8 +48.7% +34.6% 75% 75% +11.6%
all 8 +48.7% +34.6% 75% 75% +11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.6% 75% +11.6%
10% +21.7% 75% +0.9%
15% +9.9% 75% -8.8%
20% -0.8% 50% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$150 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$179
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage73d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$142 +70%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $30 +$73 +245%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $61 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 35h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 7d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.64 · official $60.64 (match) · 15 history records