Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:36:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9F 0x9f6e…893f crypto 532 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$142 (+3%) realized +$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate89%474W / 58L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$199
14 days+$203
30 days+$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 +3.9% -6.0% 88% 62% -4.7%
≤30d 221 +5.3% -4.7% 88% 60% -4.9%
≤90d 258 +3.7% -6.2% 88% 53% -5.9%
all 532 +1.8% -7.9% 89% 39% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 39% -7.4%
10% -16.7% 8% -16.3%
15% -24.8% 4% -24.3%
20% -32.1% 2% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses474 / 58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)532 / 532
History coverage137d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 532 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $40 +$15 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $38 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $41 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $41 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $43 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $32 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $9 +$4 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $40 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $38 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $41 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $19 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $8 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $23 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $31 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $22 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $19 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $9 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1141 history records