Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f70…1150 crypto 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$58 (+3%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%61W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$89
14 days−$75
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -50.2% -54.9% 19% 19% -33.3%
≤30d 94 -24.3% -31.5% 36% 35% -15.8%
≤90d 151 -28.5% -35.3% 40% 35% -15.8%
all 151 -28.5% -35.3% 40% 35% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 35% -15.8%
10% -41.5% 25% -23.9%
15% -47.2% 20% -31.2%
20% -52.3% 19% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses61 / 90
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage33d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions (83 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$6 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$11 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$15 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$24 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$10 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$25 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $32 −$14 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $6 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $6 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $13 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 385 history records