Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f72…22c7 politics 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-4%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% $0
politics 35% −$3
tech 9% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 2 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 2 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 0% -10.8%
all 2 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -10.8%
10% -21.2% 0% -19.4%
15% -28.8% 0% -27.2%
20% -35.8% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 70¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will Mike Bouchard be the Republican Nominee for MI-10? No 23¢ 22¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Will Perena launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 57¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? No 14¢ 14¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? No 7¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 25 $87 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026? Jun 24 $25 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.45 · official $40.45 (match) · 18 history records