Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f78…9dbb crypto 452 markets active 17h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-1%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate77%349W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$4
14 days−$24
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$28
politics 16% −$1
other 13% +$10
sports 11% −$23
world 6% −$5
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -9.3% -18.0% 50% 50% -16.0%
≤30d 55 -8.1% -16.9% 75% 25% -14.8%
≤90d 219 -2.8% -12.0% 90% 7% -11.4%
all 452 -2.0% -11.3% 77% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 4% -10.2%
10% -19.8% 2% -18.8%
15% -27.5% 2% -26.6%
20% -34.6% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses349 / 103
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)452 / 452
History coverage142d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 452 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $5 +$1 +17%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $5 +$9 +172%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $13 +$5 +37%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 11 $10 +$7 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $8 +$6 +79%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $5 +$3 +57%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 11 $9 −$8 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 10 $7 −$7 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $8 +$1 +11%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 10 $6 +$3 +45%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $5 +$3 +52%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $5 +$4 +70%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $6 +$2 +25%
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Jun 06 $5 +$3 +52%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 04 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET Jun 02 $14 −$7 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4PM ET Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? Jun 01 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5PM ET May 31 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11PM ET May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET May 30 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11PM ET May 29 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET May 29 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12PM ET May 28 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5PM ET May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET May 27 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET May 27 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3PM ET May 25 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5PM ET May 25 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7AM ET May 22 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11PM ET May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6AM ET May 21 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 85¢ $5 17h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 60¢ $5 24h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 32¢ $8 38h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 36¢ $5 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 73¢ $13 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4d
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL No 80¢ $6 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 62¢ $5 5d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 62¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 55¢ $8 7d
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) BUY Knicks 57¢ $10 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 84¢ $10 7d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Spurs 67¢ $9 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 52¢ $5 7d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 63¢ $5 7d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 55¢ $7 7d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 72¢ $4 8d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 90¢ $8 8d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 69¢ $6 8d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 65¢ $5 9d
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay BUY No 83¢ $6 10d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 10d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 80¢ $6 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 12d
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 65¢ $5 12d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 12d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 55¢ $7 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $7 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1938 history records