Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:36:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9F 0x9f79…d807 other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$257 (+4%) realized +$130 · open +$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%62W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$150
7 days−$82
14 days+$152
30 days+$208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$101
sports 9% +$369
crypto 5% +$13
weather 4% −$169
tech 1% −$23
world 1% −$52
politics 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -15.7% -23.8% 45% 42% -12.7%
≤30d 102 -5.0% -14.1% 55% 53% -6.5%
≤90d 114 -6.4% -15.3% 54% 52% -7.7%
all 114 -6.4% -15.3% 54% 52% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 52% -7.7%
10% -23.4% 46% -16.5%
15% -30.8% 33% -24.6%
20% -37.6% 25% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$39 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$403
Realized+$130
Unrealized+$127
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses62 / 52
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions5
Markets (closed)114 / 119
History coverage36d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 90¢ $50 $226 +$175 (+347%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $25 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 6¢ $50 $4 −$46 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$6 +11%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 +$52 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $136 +$94 +69%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $31 +$9 +29%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $48 +$36 +75%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $65 +$40 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $135 −$74 -55%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $71 +$184 +261%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $74 +$53 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 +$80 +440%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$37 +37%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $114 +$51 +45%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $160 +$75 +47%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $51 +$10 +19%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$48 +92%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $159 +$8 +5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $52 +$46 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $29 +$15 +51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $129 −$106 -82%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $84 +$6 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +56%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will FC Inter Turku win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $51 +$22 +42%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $52 +$130 +248%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $86 +$49 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $52 9h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 16h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 16h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 16h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $51 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 16h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 27h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $31 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 41h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $136 41h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA SELL Yes 0¢ $0 41h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 40¢ $27 2d
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY Yes 21¢ $37 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $48 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $65 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $61 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $61 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $104 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $71 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $70 3d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $52 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $52 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $403.19 · official $403.19 (match) · 255 history records