Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:10:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9F 0x9f7a…07a0 weather 345 markets active 2d ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$234 (+9%) realized +$213 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%122W / 217L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$19
14 days−$79
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 62% +$74
other 11% +$56
sports 10% −$21
world 7% +$88
finance 4% −$25
politics 3% −$2
culture 2% −$1
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +23.4% +11.7% 75% 75% +14.8%
≤30d 284 +9.9% -0.6% 35% 33% -5.9%
≤90d 339 +13.0% +2.2% 36% 34% -4.8%
all 339 +13.0% +2.2% 36% 34% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.2% 34% -4.8%
10% ← realistic here -7.6% 29% -13.9%
15% -16.5% 23% -22.2%
20% -24.7% 19% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized+$213
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses122 / 217
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)339 / 345
History coverage38d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 339 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 72¢ 98¢ $47 $64 +$17 (+37%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $38 $45 +$7 (+17%)
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m? No 91¢ 90¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-7%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 91¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+5%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 173 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $16 +$4 +24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA Jun 20 $7 +$3 +34%
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the Mexico vs South Korea F Jun 19 $13 +$7 +52%
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the Mexico vs South Korea FI Jun 19 $3 +$7 +208%
Will the announcers say "Hydration Break" 10+ times during the Mexico Jun 19 $18 +$2 +12%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Mexico vs South Korea Jun 18 $16 −$16 -99%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the Mexico vs South Korea Jun 18 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA Jun 18 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the announcers say "Fan" 10+ times during the Mexico vs South Kor Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the announcers say "History" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 18 $8 +$2 +32%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 18 $7 +$3 +43%
Will the announcers say "Offside" or "Offsides" 10+ times during the E Jun 18 $3 +$7 +260%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 18 $4 +$6 +127%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 18 $7 +$3 +39%
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 18 $10 +$10 +108%
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 17 $0 +$2 +400%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$7 +291%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 17 $9 −$8 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 +$4 +65%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 16 $70 −$32 -45%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $70 +$23 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$7 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 −$17 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C or below on May 27? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 6? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 7? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 10? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 5? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 36h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 36h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $5 2d
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less th BUY No 91¢ $46 3d
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the Mexico vs South Korea FI BUY No 32¢ $2 7d
Will the announcers say "Hydration Break" 10+ times during the Mexico BUY No 89¢ $18 7d
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Mexico vs South Korea BUY No 80¢ $16 7d
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the Mexico vs South Korea F BUY Yes 51¢ $8 7d
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the Mexico vs South Korea F SELL No 49¢ $5 7d
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the Mexico vs South Korea BUY No 78¢ $8 7d
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the Mexico vs South Korea FI BUY No 32¢ $2 7d
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY No 74¢ $7 7d
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY Yes 70¢ $7 7d
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the Mexico vs South Korea F BUY No 51¢ $5 7d
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF BUY No 53¢ $5 7d
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY No 42¢ $2 7d
Will the announcers say "Fan" 10+ times during the Mexico vs South Kor BUY Yes 11¢ $2 7d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $4 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $3 8d
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 49¢ $5 8d
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY No 28¢ $3 8d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $6 8d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 8d
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY Yes 20¢ $0 9d
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 47¢ $10 9d
Will the announcers say "Offside" or "Offsides" 10+ times during the E BUY No 27¢ $3 9d
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY Yes $1 9d
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 73¢ $7 9d
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI BUY No 71¢ $7 9d
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY No 69¢ $7 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.08 · official $212.08 (match) · 883 history records