Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:59:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9F 0x9f7b…7f37 sports 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25,308 (-7%) realized −$27,995 · open +$2,687
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%56W / 68L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,923per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$2,510est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$7,576now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$8,694
other 31% −$44,254
crypto 23% −$7,095
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -39.0% -44.8% 34% 34% -47.2%
≤30d 41 -20.5% -28.1% 44% 41% -33.0%
≤90d 124 -12.7% -21.1% 45% 44% -21.0%
all 124 -12.7% -21.1% 45% 44% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 44% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.6% 44% -28.5%
15% -35.5% 42% -35.4%
20% -41.8% 39% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$3,878) neutral
Persistence
early -16% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,488 vs −$2,716 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$7,576
Realized−$27,995
Unrealized+$2,687
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses56 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$2,510
Open positions2
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage64d
Avg bet$2,923
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 25¢ 24¢ $3,413 $3,344 −$68 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 0¢ 18¢ $0 $2,756 +$2,756 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $810 +$692 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $1,015 −$981 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 24 $2,366 +$1,890 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $1,809 −$1,749 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $1,349 −$1,313 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $3,400 −$3,306 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 24 $5,038 −$1,357 -27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5,047 −$4,953 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $6,860 −$6,727 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $6,860 +$4,791 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $2,882 −$2,770 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $5,026 +$3,160 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $3,438 −$3,328 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $2,402 −$2,310 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $4,040 −$3,921 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $5,099 −$4,897 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $3,608 +$2,959 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $4,287 +$2,144 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $4,217 +$3,418 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $3,550 +$3,736 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $2,022 −$1,957 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $2,773 +$1,670 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $4,439 −$4,314 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $5,052 +$3,657 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $2,502 −$2,423 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $2,166 −$2,067 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $2,520 +$1,483 +59%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $4,883 −$4,774 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $6,862 −$6,710 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $9,799 −$9,614 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $14,854 −$14,632 -98%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz Jun 23 $884 −$868 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5,874 −$5,804 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6,410 −$6,282 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $8,936 +$4,690 +52%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27? May 29 $1,027 +$1,128 +110%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? May 29 $2,460 +$2,386 +97%
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste May 29 $1,568 +$3,261 +208%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 29 $9,800 +$7,469 +76%
Madrid Open: Ann Li vs Leylah Fernandez May 29 $9,622 +$3,040 +32%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Casper Ruud: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $2,548 −$2,514 -99%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $3,920 +$6,477 +165%
Madrid Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Jelena Ostapenko Apr 27 $6,654 +$6,673 +100%
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar Apr 27 $9,685 +$9,231 +95%
Qinwen Zheng vs. Elena Rybakina: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $1,470 +$1,511 +103%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $4,410 +$4,278 +97%
Madrid Open: Vit Kopriva vs Arthur Rinderknech Apr 26 $1,715 +$1,847 +108%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw? Apr 26 $3,126 −$3,056 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Jodar Apr 26 $6,272 −$6,203 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 25¢ $3,489 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $141 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $432 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $237 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $277 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $739 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $702 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $712 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $395 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $367 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $642 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $280 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $186 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $892 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $786 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $46 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $517 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $562 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $882 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $450 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $603 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $529 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $375 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3,324 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $357 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 37¢ $5,047 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $6,860 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1,575 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1,434 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1,013 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,575.93 · official $7,575.93 (match) · 361 history records