Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:29:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f7f…2e64 weather 152 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$717 (+2%) realized +$736 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate70%105W / 46L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day36.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days+$179
14 days+$451
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$306
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +6.4% -3.7% 87% 30% -6.7%
≤30d 98 +5.9% -4.2% 76% 27% -9.2%
≤90d 151 +3.0% -6.8% 70% 21% -8.8%
all 151 +3.0% -6.8% 70% 21% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 21% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 9% -17.5%
15% -23.9% 5% -25.5%
20% -31.3% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$38 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$459
Realized+$736
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses105 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage43d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day36.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? No 92¢ 88¢ $478 $459 −$19 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $349 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $495 −$178 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 15 $217 −$19 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $311 +$15 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 15 $67 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $121 +$14 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 14 $464 +$40 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 14 $331 +$28 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $43 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 13 $361 +$24 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $162 −$17 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 12 $395 +$55 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 12 $207 +$20 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $54 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 11? Jun 11 $350 +$36 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 11? Jun 11 $237 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? Jun 10 $303 +$47 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 10? Jun 10 $441 +$23 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 10 $68 +$7 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 9? Jun 09 $571 +$29 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $50 +$24 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 8? Jun 08 $91 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 08 $162 +$31 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8? Jun 08 $189 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 7? Jun 08 $54 +$18 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 7? Jun 07 $302 +$33 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 07 $278 +$21 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 6? Jun 06 $4 +$4 +125%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 6? Jun 06 $26 −$6 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on June 6? Jun 06 $132 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 06 $97 +$26 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 05 $49 +$19 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 05 $416 +$29 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 4? Jun 04 $271 +$22 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 4? Jun 04 $398 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 04 $72 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 4? Jun 04 $490 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3? Jun 03 $7 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 3? Jun 03 $122 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 2? Jun 02 $499 +$38 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 1? Jun 01 $194 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 1? Jun 01 $180 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 31? May 31 $163 +$40 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 31? May 31 $431 +$39 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 31? May 31 $84 +$8 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 31? May 31 $65 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 30? May 30 $85 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 30? May 30 $783 −$118 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $114 27m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 29m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 30m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $30 32m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6 32m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $7 39m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL Yes 91¢ $106 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL No 6¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL No 6¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 92¢ $109 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL No 15¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 15¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL No 14¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL No 17¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL No 19¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL No 19¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 21¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $159 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 30¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 30¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL No 39¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 40¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 42¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 42¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 42¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 44¢ $44 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL No 45¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? SELL No 45¢ $44 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 55¢ $55 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? SELL No 79¢ $71 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.54 · official $458.54 (match) · 1596 history records