Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:57:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f80…e886 crypto 1439 markets active 3d ago coverage 53d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$168 (-6%) realized −$168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%570W / 869L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day49.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$31
14 days−$23
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$143
other 0% −$3
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 333 -2.5% -11.8% 59% 56% -13.9%
≤30d 351 -2.4% -11.7% 59% 56% -13.3%
≤90d 1439 -5.9% -14.8% 40% 37% -14.3%
all 1439 -5.9% -14.8% 40% 37% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 37% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 31% -22.5%
15% -30.4% 26% -30.0%
20% -37.3% 23% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses570 / 869
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1439 / 1439
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day49.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1439 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records