Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f83…6cd9 other 367 markets active 0h ago coverage 389d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 388d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$32,906 (+3%) realized +$28,443 · open +$4,463
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate79%278W / 73L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$2,653per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$74,282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$180
7 days+$198
14 days+$2,444
30 days+$1,106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 26% +$1,442
politics 24% +$20,204
world 19% +$6,202
crypto 14% +$7,889
economics 11% +$2,612
tech 6% +$1,905
finance 0% +$8
culture 0% +$1
sports 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +27.9% +15.7% 88% 50% -6.3%
≤30d 71 -1.1% -10.5% 85% 25% -8.7%
≤90d 138 +5.0% -5.0% 82% 29% -2.8%
all 351 -1.4% -10.8% 79% 22% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 22% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 13% -14.7%
15% -27.1% 9% -23.0%
20% -34.2% 6% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$1,615) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$169 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.99 per $1 lost it wins $3.99
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

389d coverage
Net worth$74,282
Realized+$28,443
Unrealized+$4,463
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses278 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions16
Markets (closed)351 / 367
History coverage389d ⚠
Avg bet$2,653
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $26,436 $29,724 +$3,288 (+12%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $14,910 $15,680 +$770 (+5%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 98¢ 99¢ $8,651 $8,774 +$123 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $6,237 $6,505 +$267 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $6,025 $6,134 +$109 (+2%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $4,600 $4,625 +$25 (+1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $603 $626 +$23 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $539 $540 +$1 (+0%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 78¢ 90¢ $393 $452 +$59 (+15%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 93¢ 90¢ $363 $350 −$14 (-4%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 67¢ 94¢ $217 $304 +$87 (+40%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $272 $288 +$16 (+6%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 13¢ $218 $147 −$71 (-33%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 83¢ 47¢ $63 $35 −$27 (-43%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 23¢ $113 $7 −$106 (-94%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 53¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $236 +$22 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 +$6 +50%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $198 +$22 +11%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $8 $0 +5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 +$6 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $227 −$227 -100%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $93 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $33 +$67 +203%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 +$28 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,339 +$129 +4%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $681 +$103 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 10 $449 +$50 +11%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $3,529 +$250 +7%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $79 +$21 +27%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $61 +$34 +55%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $268 +$79 +29%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $228 +$2 +1%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $498 +$2 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $997 +$3 +0%
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $255 +$11 +4%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Vincent Keymer win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 04 $873 +$16 +2%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 04 $6,440 +$224 +4%
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 04 $1,815 +$29 +2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 04 $68 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $46,440 +$1,571 +3%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $10 $0 +4%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $208 +$10 +5%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $278 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $880 +$110 +12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $24,293 +$707 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $4,100 +$122 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Viktor Orbán by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $769 +$30 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,098 +$15 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $2,445 +$55 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1,175 +$25 +2%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $995 +$118 +12%
Will Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 01 $3,193 −$3,191 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $111 +$60 +54%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 29 $8 +$2 +18%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 28 $8 +$2 +30%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 25 $191 +$6 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $63 26m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $1,972 42m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $1,452 59m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 89¢ $301 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $0 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $403 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $129 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $73 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $539 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No $1 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $9,940 15h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $2,991 21h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 24h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $986 24h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $159 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $444 25h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $505 34h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $454 35h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $0 35h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $40 35h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $3,976 35h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 91¢ $81 35h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 36h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 86¢ $40 36h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 92¢ $92 37h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 91¢ $53 37h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $120 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $63 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74,281.53 · official $74,279.80 (match) · 3500 history records