Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:41:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f84…be62 crypto 399 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,471 (-22%) realized −$9,473 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%96W / 301L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$191
7 days−$2,857
14 days−$3,467
30 days−$7,163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$12,174
other 11% −$613
sports 9% −$92
politics 0% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -10.4% -18.9% 24% 24% -53.9%
≤30d 129 -18.0% -25.8% 24% 23% -50.3%
≤90d 397 -17.2% -25.1% 24% 23% -39.8%
all 397 -17.2% -25.1% 24% 23% -39.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 23% -39.8%
10% -32.3% 23% -45.6%
15% -38.8% 23% -50.8%
20% -44.8% 22% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$95 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized−$9,473
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses96 / 301
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions2
Markets (closed)397 / 399
History coverage56d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Ecuador (-5.5) Ecuador 7¢ 7¢ $128 $135 +$7 (+6%)
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Japan 8¢ 8¢ $83 $78 −$5 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 273 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $131 +$237 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $157 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $203 +$295 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$89 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $71 −$42 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $71 −$68 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $37 +$63 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$21 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$30 -94%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 20 $115 −$112 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $100 −$98 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 19 $123 −$120 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $158 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $53 +$41 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $53 +$73 +137%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $62 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$59 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$29 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $375 −$349 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $366 −$347 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $251 +$507 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $341 −$225 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $173 −$165 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $396 −$375 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $341 −$325 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $237 −$125 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $122 −$115 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $237 −$225 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $316 −$86 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $348 +$85 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $131 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $131 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $238 −$225 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $137 −$30 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $105 +$279 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $183 −$175 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $37 −$36 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $368 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $498 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $141 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 8¢ $85 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-5.5) BUY Ecuador 7¢ $132 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.23 · official $213.23 (match) · 1018 history records