Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f88…cd62 crypto 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6,141 (-6%) realized +$8,373 · open −$14,514
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%71W / 94L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$654per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$124est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$701now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$88
14 days−$317
30 days+$1,164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$3,971
world 26% +$15,666
politics 20% −$22,109
sports 7% +$3,514
other 1% +$767
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +99.6% +80.6% 40% 40% -6.6%
≤30d 60 -6.5% -15.4% 40% 38% -4.5%
≤90d 165 -8.3% -17.0% 43% 41% -2.7%
all 165 -8.3% -17.0% 43% 41% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 41% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 40% -12.0%
15% -32.2% 39% -20.5%
20% -38.9% 35% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 40% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$577 vs −$363 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$701
Realized+$8,373
Unrealized−$14,514
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses71 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions2
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage63d
Avg bet$654
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $15,098 $577 −$14,521 (-96%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 45¢ 48¢ $118 $125 +$7 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026? Jun 18 $1,504 −$1,504 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- Jun 18 $154 −$153 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $103 +$651 +634%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $793 +$1,294 +163%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $559 +$62 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 08 $527 −$500 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 07 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $68 +$132 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 03 $413 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 03 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 03 $157 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 03 $210 +$501 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 03 $210 −$125 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 03 $414 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 03 $206 +$120 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 03 $128 −$123 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 03 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $105 +$193 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 03 $207 −$188 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 03 $208 +$226 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 02 $313 −$187 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 02 $376 −$366 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 02 $519 +$266 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 02 $135 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 02 $408 +$180 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 02 $105 −$48 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 02 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 02 $933 +$1,006 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 02 $515 −$484 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 01 $410 −$400 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 01 $520 −$308 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 01 $124 −$120 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 01 $209 +$222 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 01 $626 +$444 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 01 $306 −$306 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 01 $207 −$197 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 01 $520 −$360 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 01 $301 −$109 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 01 $564 +$290 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 01 $724 +$658 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 01 $205 +$117 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 01 $201 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 01 $619 −$600 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 30 $835 +$1,576 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 30 $620 +$412 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 30 $316 −$229 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 30 $47 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 28 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 28 $139 +$94 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- SELL 0¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $753 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 45¢ $120 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 16¢ $154 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 98¢ $2,059 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $153 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $306 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $306 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 26¢ $4 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 26¢ $0 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 26¢ $0 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 26¢ $1 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 26¢ $1 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 26¢ $17 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 26¢ $4 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 26¢ $1 25h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 10¢ $480 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 10¢ $8 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 10¢ $2 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 10¢ $11 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 10¢ $89 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 10¢ $8 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $622 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 10¢ $290 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 14¢ $2,343 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 14¢ $0 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 14¢ $31 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $701.49 · official $701.49 (match) · 910 history records