Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:46:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f8d…7599 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-27%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-63.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -60.0% -63.8% 33% 33% -28.7%
≤30d 9 -60.0% -63.8% 33% 33% -28.7%
≤90d 9 -60.0% -63.8% 33% 33% -28.7%
all 9 -60.0% -63.8% 33% 33% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -63.8% 33% -28.7%
10% ← realistic here -67.3% 0% -35.5%
15% -70.5% 0% -41.7%
20% -73.4% 0% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $56 +$12 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $22 +$5 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 8h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $6 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $0 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records