Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f8e…aaee world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$12
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$19
other 28% −$1
sports 1% −$10
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.1% -8.5% 40% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 31 +64.8% +49.1% 35% 6% -8.7%
≤90d 36 +53.0% +38.5% 33% 6% -8.9%
all 43 +44.8% +31.0% 37% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.0% 7% -9.2%
10% +18.5% 5% -17.9%
15% +7.0% 5% -25.8%
20% -3.5% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +91% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage530d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $82 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $121 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $90 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $180 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $41 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $22 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $78 +$12 +16%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $81 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $84 +$1 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $36 −$2 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $74 +$8 +10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $368 +$2 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $44 −$6 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $35 +$6 +16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $7 −$1 -13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $30 $0 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $307 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 13 $279 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 12 $17 −$1 -7%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $1 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $4 $0 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Central Michigan vs. Ball State Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Ronald" or "Reagan" at CPAC conference on Saturday? Mar 03 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Liverpool vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Jan 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $51 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $55 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $55 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $32 23h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $32 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $7 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $43 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $4 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $9 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $37 31h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $47 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $20 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $27 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $50 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $55 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $55 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.95 · official $50.88 (match) · 194 history records