Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:29:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9F 0x9f8f…6de5 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$613 (+35%) realized +$593 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$216
7 days+$559
14 days+$556
30 days+$556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$230
other 39% +$302
crypto 4% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +55.9% +41.0% 72% 72% +35.7%
≤30d 23 +36.5% +23.5% 61% 61% +28.1%
≤90d 23 +36.5% +23.5% 61% 61% +28.1%
all 23 +36.5% +23.5% 61% 61% +28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.5% 61% +28.1%
10% +11.6% 61% +15.8%
15% +0.9% 61% +4.6%
20% -9.0% 48% -5.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +65% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$28 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.17 per $1 lost it wins $3.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$370
Realized+$593
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)23 / 29
History coverage8d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 65¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 51¢ 52¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 43¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 53¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$95 +93%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 +$126 +124%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$65 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $66 +$36 +55%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$40 +388%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$47 +92%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$74 +146%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$31 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $63 +$44 +70%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$20 -40%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $39 −$17 -43%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $118 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $43 +$57 +134%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 43¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 51¢ $101 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 11h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $50 11h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $102 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 31h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $101 38h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $102 39h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 94¢ $98 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $66 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 48¢ $51 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $51 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $63 5d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL 35¢ $31 5d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 55¢ $51 5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a d BUY 24¢ $26 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 40¢ $51 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $22 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $39 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $117 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $118 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.23 · official $370.23 (match) · 47 history records