Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

9F 0x9f90…4c92 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$221 (+10%) realized +$221 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip

Net edge-25%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%14W / 18L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$66per market

Trades / day8.1pace

Fees−$14est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-18.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	32	-10.2%	-18.7%	44%	44%	+1.9%
≤30d	32	-10.2%	-18.7%	44%	44%	+1.9%
≤90d	32	-10.2%	-18.7%	44%	44%	+1.9%
all	32	-10.2%	-18.7%	44%	44%	+1.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.7%	44%	+1.9%
10%	-26.5%	44%	-7.9%
15%	-33.6%	44%	-16.8%
20%	-40.1%	34%	-24.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 37% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -52% → late +32% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$85 vs −$51 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.29 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$164

Realized+$221

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses14 / 18

Est. fees paid−$14

Open positions3

Markets (closed)32 / 35

History coverage6d

Avg bet$66

Trades / day8.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 32 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Colombia	46¢	46¢	$75	$74	−$1 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	30¢	30¢	$74	$73	−$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$15	$17	+$2 (+15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	Jun 17	$31	+$74	+243%
Austria to win the second half?	Jun 17	$81	+$53	+66%
Austria leading at halftime?	Jun 17	$81	+$72	+89%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$143	+$324	+226%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$41	+$36	+90%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$71	−$70	-98%
Norway leading at halftime?	Jun 17	$25	+$16	+62%
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	Jun 17	$71	+$123	+172%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$142	+$92	+65%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals	Jun 16	$71	−$70	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$151	+$72	+48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$71	−$70	-99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$50	−$50	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	Jun 15	$20	+$9	+46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$172	−$170	-99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$87	−$85	-98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 15	$31	−$30	-98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland?	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 15	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$101	−$101	-100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 15	$21	−$21	-100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Jun 15	$82	−$82	-100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 15	$31	−$31	-100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye?	Jun 15	$31	−$31	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$101	+$87	+86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$61	+$49	+81%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$61	+$97	+158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$212	+$90	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Colombia	46¢	$76	52m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$76	55m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	52¢	$41	6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	30¢	$143	6h
Austria to win the second half?	BUY Yes	60¢	$40	6h
Austria leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	53¢	$41	6h
Austria to win the second half?	BUY Yes	59¢	$40	7h
Austria leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	7h
Austria leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	51¢	$30	7h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$71	9h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals	BUY Yes	37¢	$71	10h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	60¢	$20	18h
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	BUY Norway	36¢	$71	18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	60¢	$71	18h
Norway leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	61¢	$25	23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	60¢	$51	26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	BUY	29¢	$31	27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$151	35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	55¢	$71	35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$71	40h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$20	40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	68¢	$20	42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	39¢	$71	42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$30	2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	35¢	$31	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	34¢	$15	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	61¢	$71	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	53¢	$51	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.14 · official $164.14 (match) · 74 history records