Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:28:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9F 0x9f90…5c13 other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$742 (+15%) realized +$763 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate70%30W / 13L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$877now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$380
7 days+$624
14 days+$683
30 days+$677
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$563
sports 11% +$98
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +38.2% +25.1% 74% 74% +9.0%
≤30d 43 +23.8% +12.0% 70% 63% +6.2%
≤90d 43 +23.8% +12.0% 70% 63% +6.2%
all 43 +23.8% +12.0% 70% 63% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.0% 63% +6.2%
10% +1.3% 51% -4.0%
15% -8.5% 49% -13.3%
20% -17.5% 35% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$57 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$877
Realized+$763
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses30 / 13
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)43 / 50
History coverage22d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 38¢ $298 $225 −$73 (-25%)
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $100 $146 +$46 (+46%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 29¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $239 +$48 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$142 +140%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$50 +50%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$126 +124%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $192 +$131 +68%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$62 -62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $649 −$244 -38%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $101 −$98 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$221 +216%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$31 -30%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 +$3 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $42 +$52 +124%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 +$11 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $43 −$24 -56%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $75 +$34 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$45 -89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $68 −$50 -73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 +$5 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 +$4 +41%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 54m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 1h
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 12h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $18 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $201 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 37h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $101 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $91 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $39 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $346 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $877.15 · official $887.50 · 99 history records