Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:13:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f91…b746 crypto 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$26 (+2%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate58%87W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$26
14 days−$73
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$78
other 17% −$16
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +4.8% -5.2% 55% 48% -13.5%
≤30d 117 +1.0% -8.7% 57% 44% -15.1%
≤90d 151 -1.9% -11.2% 58% 44% -15.7%
all 151 -1.9% -11.2% 58% 44% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 44% -15.7%
10% -19.7% 36% -23.8%
15% -27.5% 30% -31.1%
20% -34.6% 24% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses87 / 64
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage43d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$21 +81%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $8 −$5 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $68 −$5 -7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$27 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $60 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$16 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 5h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 7h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 9h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $63 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $3 13h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $7 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 310 history records