Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9F 0x9f94…066c sports 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$483 (+3%) realized +$484 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate78%28W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$521per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$84
14 days−$6
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$66
economics 26% +$193
world 14% +$123
sports 7% +$84
tech 7% +$79
politics 6% +$74
culture 1% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -27.9% -34.7% 40% 40% -46.8%
≤90d 17 +4.2% -5.7% 65% 47% -8.5%
all 36 -2.1% -11.4% 78% 22% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 22% -7.3%
10% -19.9% 19% -16.2%
15% -27.6% 19% -24.3%
20% -34.7% 19% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,190) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$109 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$484
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses28 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage236d
Avg bet$521
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $74 $73 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 16 $86 −$84 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $84 +$78 +93%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $72 −$71 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $42 +$28 +67%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $115 −$113 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $91 −$89 -98%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $11 +$1 +9%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 12 $117 +$178 +152%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 08 $108 −$107 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Utah May 02 $120 +$108 +90%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $126 +$104 +83%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $14 +$1 +8%
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals Apr 20 $116 +$103 +90%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 09 $231 −$229 -99%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 09 $116 +$69 +60%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 05 $12 +$2 +18%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $1,467 +$53 +4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $1,490 +$15 +1%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 11 $1,407 +$83 +6%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 06 $1,338 +$79 +6%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 11 $1,301 +$37 +3%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $1,241 +$60 +5%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10? Jan 15 $1,161 +$31 +3%
Will Exeter City FC win on 2026-01-10? Jan 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 07 $1,208 +$32 +3%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 19 $170 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 19 $1,092 +$95 +9%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Dec 05 $1,220 +$42 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 20 $1,190 +$31 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 09 $1,116 +$74 +7%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Nov 02 $27 $0 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Nov 02 $1,073 +$15 +1%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Oct 30 $22 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $25 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $1,002 +$23 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $76 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 42¢ $86 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $84 14d
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 54¢ $72 19d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 44¢ $115 25d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 59¢ $42 33d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $91 33d
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 39¢ $117 42d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 53¢ $108 45d
Golden Knights vs. Utah BUY Golden Knights 52¢ $120 52d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 54¢ $126 58d
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals BUY San Francisco Giants 52¢ $116 65d
Lakers vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 63¢ $231 74d
Rockets vs. Warriors BUY Rockets 62¢ $116 78d
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 96¢ $1,467 95d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 92¢ $11 95d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 93¢ $14 95d
Iran leadership change by March 31? BUY No 85¢ $12 95d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $1,490 103d
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $1,407 107d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,338 131d
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,301 138d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,241 156d
Will Exeter City FC win on 2026-01-10? BUY Yes $1 162d
Will Exeter City FC win on 2026-01-10? BUY Yes $16 162d
Will Exeter City FC win on 2026-01-10? BUY Yes $13 163d
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10? BUY No 97¢ $1,161 166d
Maduro out in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $1,208 180d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No $12 185d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No $28 185d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.47 · official $73.47 (match) · 78 history records