Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f99…d11e crypto 32 markets active 4d ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$34 (-30%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%4W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +15.0% +4.1% 15% 15% -32.1%
≤30d 32 -2.9% -12.2% 12% 12% -39.4%
≤90d 32 -2.9% -12.2% 12% 12% -39.4%
all 32 -2.9% -12.2% 12% 12% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 12% -39.4%
10% -20.6% 12% -45.2%
15% -28.3% 12% -50.5%
20% -35.3% 12% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +67% → late -73% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$3 · ×4.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses4 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage12d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$13 +327%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$21 +1063%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$15 +748%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$11 +567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $22 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records